Global climate commitments are expected to limit global warming to 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) this century, according to the United Nations. However, this level remains significantly below what is necessary to address the ongoing climate crisis, despite numerous pledges made by countries.
In its annual Emissions Gap Report, released on Tuesday, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) stated that the world is likely to surpass the 1.5C (2.7F) target set under the Paris Agreement within the next decade. The report indicates that if current climate action plans are fully implemented, global temperatures could rise by 2.3 to 2.5C (4.1 to 4.5F) by 2100. However, with existing policies in place, the temperature increase could reach 2.8C (5F).
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen noted that nations have had multiple opportunities to meet their Paris Agreement commitments but have consistently fallen short. She emphasized that while some progress has been made through national climate plans, it is insufficient and too slow. “We need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with a challenging geopolitical backdrop,” she said.
The findings of the report come ahead of the upcoming UN climate conference, COP30, scheduled to take place in Brazil. The event will highlight the global struggle to effectively address the climate crisis.
According to the report, global emissions increased by 2.3 percent in 2024 compared to the previous year. This growth was primarily driven by India, followed by China, Russia, and Indonesia. However, the G20 economies, which include the wealthiest and most powerful nations, accounted for three-quarters of global emissions. Among the six largest polluters, only the European Union managed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in 2024.
Meanwhile, the United States under the Trump administration has distanced itself from its climate commitments. The country’s planned withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is set to become official early next year. UNEP reported that the administration’s policies, including rolling back environmental regulations and hindering green energy projects, could add an additional 0.1 degree of warming. The agency also called on the rest of the world to cut an extra two billion tonnes of carbon dioxide annually to offset the projected increase in US emissions.
Scientists agree that exceeding 1.5C (2.7F) above pre-industrial levels poses severe risks, including catastrophic consequences for ecosystems and communities. At 1.4C (2.5F), many tropical coral reefs are already at risk of disappearing, and ice sheets and the Amazon rainforest could face irreversible damage before reaching 2C (3.6F), with far-reaching effects on the planet.
Adelle Thomas, vice chair of a separate UN scientific panel, highlighted the significance of even small increases in temperature. “Every tenth of a degree has real-world impacts on communities and ecosystems,” she said. “It matters in heatwaves, ocean heatwaves, and coral reef destruction. It also affects long-term issues like sea level rise.”
The report noted that only 60 parties to the Paris Agreement, representing 63 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, had submitted or announced new mitigation targets for 2035 by the end of September. UNEP urged world leaders to implement “decisive, accelerated” reductions in emissions to minimize the likelihood of exceeding the 1.5C threshold.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized that a temporary overshoot of 1.5C is now inevitable, starting as early as the 2030s. He stressed that the path to a livable future is becoming steeper each day but urged continued efforts. “This is not a reason to surrender, but to step up and speed up. Achieving 1.5C by the end of the century remains our North Star. And the science is clear: this goal is still within reach, but only if we meaningfully increase our ambition.”
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