Recent battlefield advances by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in Kordofan have been viewed by analysts as a potential turning point in the ongoing conflict. These developments, reported to Al Jazeera, suggest that SAF may be gaining strategic advantages over the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which have been engaged in a brutal war with the SAF for two and a half years.
The conflict has led to widespread displacement and is recognized by the United Nations as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. The war has affected millions of people, with tens of thousands killed and over 10 million displaced. Additionally, 24.6 million people face acute food insecurity, while 19 million lack access to safe water and sanitation.
In September, the SAF captured the strategically significant city of Bara, which had served as a logistics hub and muster point for RSF reinforcements. This move is seen as a critical shift in the balance of power, according to military analyst Akram Ali. Bara lies approximately 350 km southwest of Khartoum along the “Export Road,” a vital artery connecting the capital to el-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan State.
This road also facilitates the export of agricultural products and livestock from the region. The connection between Khartoum and el-Obeid is crucial, as it provides access to routes leading to South Sudan, Darfur, and the Red Sea port of Port Sudan. It also links to Egypt and the eastern regions of Eritrea and Ethiopia.
SAF captured el-Obeid in February after a two-year siege and took control of Khartoum in March. With the capture of Bara, the SAF now holds solid control over the Export Road, allowing for an independent supply route. This development, according to Ali, significantly enhances the SAF’s logistical capabilities.
Bara and el-Obeid are located near the westernmost extent of SAF-controlled territory. To the east lies el-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, which remains under SAF control. Between el-Fasher and the SAF-held areas is a stretch of RSF-controlled territory, where the RSF continues to besiege el-Fasher.
For the RSF, maintaining control of Bara and a presence in Kordofan was essential to exert pressure on the SAF and to connect its controlled territories in Kordofan and Darfur with South Sudan. This network allows for the movement of weapons and fighters.
The SAF launched an offensive on Bara on September 11, focusing their attacks from the south while the RSF concentrated its defenses on the eastern side. The operation involved continuous drone strikes and the deployment of the Darfur Track Armed Struggle Movement, an agile assault force that successfully defeated the RSF defenders and entered Bara with heavy firepower.
According to an anonymous military officer, the operation relied on speed and the ability to keep the RSF occupied on multiple fronts, preventing them from sending reinforcements. Most of Bara’s civilians supported the SAF, and the RSF retreated quickly.
The capture of Bara disrupted the RSF’s supply lines, isolating their remaining positions in areas such as al-Khuwei and al-Nahud. Losing Bara also meant that the RSF could no longer maintain the siege on el-Obeid.
In February, the RSF announced an alliance with the Southern People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N). This group controls the Nuba Mountains region in South Kordofan, adjacent to the border with South Sudan. However, analysts suggest that losing control of the Export Road significantly weakens the RSF’s position in the region.
“The army’s entry into el-Obeid marked the beginning of their actual collapse,” said Akram Ali. A unit named “Al-Sayyad,” honoring a fallen commander, moved from Rabak and eventually reached el-Obeid.
Political analyst Ahmed Shomokh noted that capturing Bara could lead to the reactivation of the SAF’s air base in el-Obeid, the largest in Kordofan. This would enhance the SAF’s logistical and combat capabilities, supporting their campaign to expel the RSF from the region.
Taking full control of Kordofan would allow the SAF to focus on liberating Darfur, according to Abdul Majeed Abdul Hamid. He stated that the SAF possesses the experience and personnel necessary to reclaim the region using the same strategies that enabled them to retake central Sudan and the capital.
The war has devastated the region, with long-term consequences for its people and infrastructure. As the conflict continues, the humanitarian situation remains dire, with millions in need of urgent assistance.
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